Time for a repeat
Hey look, the Phillies are back in the World Series. Their opponent is not yet determined, but as the Yankees are up three games to one, I doubt it will be the Angels. So, for a brief moment, let us discuss the matchup between the Phils and the Yankees, position by position. Keep in mind I’m far too lazy to actually look up statistics, so a lot of this is just gut feeling, making it utterly useless for actually predicting anything, but hopefully it’ll spark some conversation.
- Starting pitching – The Phils have the best starting pitcher, Cliff Lee. It’s pretty routine to expect 7 innings, 2 runs, or better. Unfortunately, after Lee, the Phils have Cole Hamels, who is going through a disastrous year-long slump and can’t be counted on against a strong Yankees lineup, and then Blanton and Pedro, who are what they are, but happen to be right-handed and so may have some success against A-Rod and Jeter. The Yanks feature: CC Sabathia, a fine pitcher who doesn’t do well against the Phils, and who may be used on 3 days rest rather frequently; AJ Burnett, who is good, except for when he’s bad; and Andy Pettitte, who is 37 years old and doesn’t seem as effective when he’s not allowed to inject HGH into folds of skin on his abdomen. Slight edge Phillies.
Bullpen – An area of major concern for the Phils. Each pitcher is effective…sometimes, with the exception of Brad Lidge, still the closer, who I don’t trust in any situation where the Phils aren’t up by 5 or more. Ryan Madson pitches like he’s either trying to shave runs for a bookie who’s kidnapped his dog, or just wants to keep things “interesting” for the fans. You know what would be interesting, Ryan? Setting a record for “most strikeouts in a post-season.” Go for that. The Yankees have Mariano Rivera, and honestly I don’t know who else, but it doesn’t matter because if they get to the 8th inning with a lead, Rivera can get a 5-6 out save 99.9999999% of the time, despite being older than my first car (a 1972 Pontiac Grandville). Big edge Yankees.
Catcher – CHOOOOOCH! Carlos Ruiz keeps coming up big in the playoffs, and until he falters, I’m sticking with him. The Yankees do have legend Jorge Posada, who is 38 and a defensive liability, so expect the Phils to run a ton. They could also use Francisco Cervelli, who is younger and better, but I’d expect the Yankees to go with experience over actual skill. Edge Phillies.
First Base – A toughie. There’s no more a terrifying threat than Ryan Howard, but smart pitchers know how to get him out: breaking balls, and plenty of them. Mark Teixeira is slightly better hitter, and as a switch hitter is largely immune to matchup problems, but doesn’t have Howard’s brawn (though he did lead the AL in homers this year, with 39; it’s nice to see annual home run records return to earth a bit, isn’t it?). No pitcher wants to see either of these guys at the plate. Mark Teixeira is a better fielder, but Ryan Howard may have achieved Phillie immortality by telling his teammates “Just get me to the plate, boys” in the top of the 9th at Coors Field and then tied the game. Even.
Second Base – Chase Utley is the best all-around player in baseball, but is unfortunately having a weird postseason; not hitting well, and those two errant throws in the NLCS were concerning. Mitch Williams mentioned he thinks Chase is still bothered by the hip that was repaired last offseason. Still, Chase Utley only cares about things: puppies, and winning baseball games. Robinson Cano, on the other hand, is a fine player, with a little less experience, but who is uninjured and a lifetime average of .306. He’s a hidden tough out in the lineup, and also hit 25 home runs this year. Uninjured Cano vs. possibly-injured, and at the very least a little erratic, Utley? Eek. It pains me: Slight edge Yankees.
Shortstop – Jimmy Rollins is young, athletic, had a tough start to the season, but has been En Fuego in the playoffs. Derek Jeter has had a hell of a year, and is the best shortstop in Yankees history, but one doesn’t get titles like that by being young; he doesn’t have the defensive range he once did.Slight edge Phillies.
Third Base – Ouch. A-Rod vs. Pedro Feliz. Sorry, Pete Happy. Big edge Yankees.
Outfield – Ibanez has the power, Vic has the speed, and Jayson Werth just seems to be one of those guys who comes up huge in the playoffs. All three of them are pretty good with the glove, too. The Yanks have: Johnny Damon, an aging but reasonably good hitter who fields like he has polio; Nick Swisher, who is decent in the field and mediocre at the plate, but who has been having a strong post-season; and Melky Cabrera, another mediocre talent who once killed a puppy with his bare hands. Ha ha! Just kidding! Checking if you’re still awake. Edge Phillies.
Bench – The Phillies have speed and power on the bench, the latter in the form of Matt Stairs, who has a waistline like many of my uncles. Ben Francisco, who came from Cleveland with Cliff Lee, is a great defensive substitution for Ibanez (who isn’t really a bad fielder either), and isn’t an easy out at the plate either. Greg “Lou” Dobbs is, sadly, a corpse, and Miguel Cairo is 35 years old. The Yankees feature Hideki Matsui, who will of course DH when they play at Yankee Stadium, and also Jerry Hairston, Jr., who has a name like a Radio Shack manager. They also have Brett Gardner, Freddy Guzman, and whichever of the Molina brothers is still alive. Not a bad bench, but manager Joe Girardi has shown an alarming propensity for misusing it (more on this in a moment). Slight edge Phillies.
Manager. Okay, deep breath, because you’re not going to like this: I, alone among Phillies fans, still think that Charlie “Dear Leader” Manuel is…not…that…good. The man has the best lineup in baseball, and some fine starting pitching, so really his management doesn’t come into play until the late innings, when he occasionally makes great decisions, and occasionally some baffling ones. The other day he put in Greg Dobbs against a right-handed pitcher, which caused the Phillie phaithphul to panic because Greg Dobbs hasn’t had a big hit in over a year, but what happened was that Joe Torre pulled the righty for a lefty, and then Manuel put in Ben Francisco. Dobbs was merely a tool to get through a likely pitching change, really the best use of him. Well done, Cholly. On the other hand, in the only loss to the Dodgers, Manuel pulled a fire-breathing Pedro Martinez in favor of a bullpen that lost the game. His continued reliance on a clearly overmatched Brad Lidge is terrifying. On the other hand, earlier this week Joe Girardi ran out of position players in an American League Championship Game. And let’s face it, even if Charlie’s nothing more than lucky, it’s better to be lucky than good. Edge Phillies.
Home Field – Yankee Stadium is brand-new, very pretty, and might as well be a Little League field for the number of homers it gives up. Also, Yankees fans are like Laker fans: wealthy, and more interested in saying “I was there for a World Series game!” than actually rooting for the team. Citizens Bank Park is fairly new, very pretty, also gives up a lot of home runs, but will contain the best fans in baseball. Edge Phillies.
With the small parks, and the massive power in the lineups, this series will be decided by the home runs, and the ability of the bullpens to hold. The Phillies 3-6 hitters all have massive power, and better yet, 3 of them are left-handed, so they should be able to take advantage of the short right field at Yankee Stadium. It shouldn’t be hard to steal one or even two games there. Unfortunately, the Phillies also have a bullpen that I simply do not trust. The key will be getting a large early lead, hoping the starting pitchers get them to the 7th with that lead intact, and then pray the bullpen holds. I see the Phils stealing one of the first two in New York (the Cliff Lee start), going 2 of 3 at home, and then heading back to New York needing only one of two games. Whichever one of those Cliff Lee pitches (game 7, I assume), they will win.
Prediction: Phillies in 7.
Of course, the Angels could win three straight, in which case forget everything I said.